Greg Jennings out of Green Bay?

An interesting story out of Wisconsin, as Packers beat writer Bob Mcginn, known as one of the most respected beat writers in the entire NFL, wrote an article about how the Pack would be wise to deal All-Pro receiver Greg Jennings before the October 30 trade deadline.  As stunning as this may sound, McGinn makes some very valid points, most notably the fact that Green Bay has no chance of resigning Jennings after this year, so either way this will be his last in Green Bay.  But I'd rather not focus on whether the Packers will decide to keep Jennings this year, and instead speculate on what teams may make an offer if this does happen.  So here it goes.

Miami Dolphins
As we all saw on Hard Knocks and throughout the season, the Dolphins don't have any good receivers.  The recent addition of Anthony Armstrong helps, but it doesn't help significantly.  I'm a firm believer that quarterbacks make great wide receivers (with some rare exceptions) and not the other way around. But a veteran receiver as talented as Jennings could be crucial in the development of rookie QB Ryan Tannehill.  Jennings has plenty of good football left, and he would instantly become Tannehill's favorite target.  Couple that with the fact that Jeff Ireland is certainly on the hot seat, and he may feel pressured to bring in a target like Jennings for their franchise quarterback.

A deal to Miami definitely makes sense, but they may be beyond fixing for the foreseeable future, which would make a second-round pick more valuable than Jennings.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Another team that could use weapons at the wide receiver position, the Jaguars would be tempted to make an offer on Jennings.  This is a similar situation to Miami, in which they would like to have a go-to guy for their young quarterback, but the Jaguars are a more complete football team than the Dolphins, so bringing in a veteran could be just the right push that this team needs.  Jennings won't make the Jaguars a good football team, but he is a piece that could move them closer to competing in the AFC South.  Also, Shahid Khan would love to bring in a big name like Greg Jennings to bolster the Jaguars into relevance.

San Diego Chargers
Even though Philip Rivers and the Chargers played well on Monday night, it's clear that Rivers doesn't have much confidence in his receivers.  Malcom Floyd looked solid, Meachem had a big catch, but they still need a #1 receiver in San Diego.  This team is looking to make some noise this year in the NFL, and they easily could with a couple more players.  I'm not sure trading a high draft pick for a veteran is the Chargers style, but the move makes sense, and they could legitimately pull the trigger on this deal.

Seattle Seahawks
Maybe the only positive from trading Jennings is being able to control which team he ends up with.  This is probably the least likely, as the Packers would like to keep a guy like Jennings out of the NFC, if possible, but ultimately they would take the best deal (if this deal ever happens, of course).  The Seahawks have brought in Terrell Owens and Braylon Edwards, so it is clear that they have been searching for some veteran talent at the receiver position.  Jennings is way better than both of those guys, so why not pony up a second rounder and grab him from the Packers?


It will be interesting to see how this story develops.  I, for one, can't see a Super Bowl contender trading away their #1 receiver just to get a draft pick.  But with the amount of weapons the Packers have, it certainly isn't out of the question.  It will be one of the toughest decisions that Ted Thompson ever has to make, and we will see how he handles it.

Early College Football Reaction- Teams that Proved they're Legit Contenders

by John Huffstetler


After two weeks of College Football season, many teams have stood out for both positive and negative reasons. Other teams have yet to even really start their season (see Florida St.'s wins over Murray St. and Savannah St.), and those teams will be ignored in this article. We will instead focus on teams that have played legit teams in either or both of their first two games and see what we've learned. And anyone who objects to the SEC dominance on this list, I have two things to say: 1) SEC teams have won the last 7 titles and 2) Not many other conferences have played anyone yet!!


Teams that have Proven to be Legit Contenders

Alabama- This isn't exactly a revelation, but the Crimson Tide just looked way more physical up front than Michigan in their 41-14 season opening win. All the questions regarding the big name defensive starters they lost to the NFL were answered in that win. There is clearly still talent there, but it is still yet to be seen how the Tide's defense will hold up against a formidable downfield passing attack. A healthy Tyler Wilson and his Arkansas squad could test their pass defense, but Wilson is questionable to play this Saturday after their disastrous loss to ULM following his injury. Without a healthy Wilson, Alabama will be 5-0 on October 13th entering back-to-back road trips to Missouri and Tennessee.

Clemson- Their opening week victory over Auburn was the best game of the young season so far. They managed to survive their test against Auburn without stud WR Sammy Watkins (who returns from suspension next week), and looked terrific in the process. The defense is definitely improved under former Oklahoma DC Brent Venables, and the offense is loaded with highlight-reel players (see any of Andre Ellington's runs this season). Additionally, the schedule is not that daunting with only four difficult games remaining (at Florida St., home against GaTech, VaTech, and SC). If they get through Florida St in two weeks (and I consider them the favorite to win that game), they will need just a few home wins to reach the ACC Championship game undefeated.

Georgia/Florida/ South Carolina- Each of the big three teams in the SEC east (no offense to a strong but outmatched Tennessee team) showed up with huge road wins in dangerous spots in the first two weeks. South Carolina had every excuse to fold in week one at Vandy and walk out with a loss after starting QB Conner Shaw injured his shoulder, but the defense stepped up and played a fantastic second half to secure the victory. Dylan Thompson then took over at QB the next week and looked like a superstar against ECU. Ditto for Florida after trailing at Texas A+M on the road only to show up after halftime and shut down the A+M attack. The offense is questionable, but the defense looks outstanding at times. Despite all the suspensions, Georgia rebounded from a halftime deficit at Missouri by winning the turnover battle and giving Aaron Murray time to pick apart the Tiger defense.

The problem with these three teams is that they all must face each other and only one team can potentially emerge. Which one? Here is the Math: Times each team plays either LSU or Alabama in the regular season- Florida 1, South Carolina 1, Georgia 0. Georgia has by far the easiest schedule, and unfortunately in the current system, an easy schedule plays a large role in who can make a run at the title. Georgia benefitted last year from avoiding both LSU and Alabama in the regular season and advanced to the title game despite a home loss to South Carolina. Georgia only has two tough road tests left (at South Carolina and Auburn) and a neutral site tilt against Florida. They have a great shot at the SEC championship and the national title game.


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NFL Week 1 Reactions

Week 1 is in the books and, as usual, it lived up to the hype.  For die-hard football fans, the first Sunday of the NFL season is the only holiday that can give Christmas morning a run for its money.  Records were broken, rookies made an impact and the New England Patriots won their first game of the season for the 9th consecutive year.  Here are some initial reactions from the first Sunday of the 2012 season.

RG3 is not RG-Leaf

The Washington Redskins have to be pleased, as they were able to do something nobody else has done since 2010--beat the Saints in the Superdome.  It was a collective team effort, and Robert Griffin was the first to point that out, but the rookie quarterback was nothing short of sensational in his first NFL start.  He started out with short passes and screens, found his rhythm, and he was shredding the Saints secondary before they even knew what hit them.  While I have been one of the biggest RG3 supporters around, there has definitely been some skepticism about his abilities and projected success in the NFL.  The comparisons to Leaf, however, were unwarranted, as RG3 wasn't entering the NFL with the same character questions as Leaf.  Anyway, it was great to see RG3 silence what few critics he had, and he looks poised for a great career.

Andrew Luck will be great, but he won't be great this year

RG3 is undoubtedly in a much better situation than Andrew Luck.  While the Redskins have some franchise pieces in place, the Colts are the worst team in the league.  For them to win games, Luck will have to be perfect, and I just don't see that happening much while playing behind a poor offensive line. Indianapolis will have to get used to some growing pains for the next year or two, until they are able to put some pieces together around Andrew Luck.  Despite the four turnovers yesterday, I was impressed with the rookie quarterback's performance, and it's clear to me that he and RG3 are head-and-shoulders above the other quarterbacks from their draft class.

The Patriots and 49ers were the most impressive teams, by far

Let's start with the 49ers, who were able to go into Lambeau and come away with a dominating performance.  I was most impressed with the running game, and if this team continues to dominate up front, both offensively and defensively, they will cruise through the regular season.  They have everything that you could ask for except for a franchise quarterback, but Alex Smith is doing his very best impression of one.

While the 49ers were in Lambeau, seemingly continuing last year's identity, the Patriots decided to have a bit of an identity change on Sunday.  New England was able to rush the passer, stop the run, lockdown in the secondary and run the football.  The Patriots haven't looked this complete since 2004, when they were able to beat the Eagles in the Super Bowl.  I still have my concerns about the offensive line from their preseason performances, but I expect the issues up front to be taken care of.

Not the same offense in Atlanta

The Falcons have finally stepped away from the ground and pound approach and given Matt Ryan the keys to the offense, and what a nice offense it is.  With Roddy White, Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez to throw to, the Falcons will be tough to stop this year.  The reason they were left out of the "most impressive" discussion is that the offense was a bit one-dimensional and the defense was spotty at times.  But Falcons fans definitely have something to look forward to, and I can guarantee the Giants won't hold them to 2 points this year.

Peyton Manning is Peyton Manning

To all of us that doubted Manning's ability to come back this season, shame on us.  He still may not be 100%, but he is a top-5 QB in this league right now.  The Broncos are in a great position to win that division, and I'd actually be shocked if they didn't, unless we see a meteoric rise from San Diego or Kansas City this year.

The Eagles aren't nearly as good as they are on paper

Before the season started, I had the Eagles pegged as a 13-3 team, with the possibility to go 15-1.  I loved what they did during the offseason, both in the draft and in free agency.  After yesterday's performance, you can tell that they still are unable to put it all together, but it's hard to figure out why.  A lot of the blame can be placed on Michael Vick, but at the end of the day, a win is a win, and the Eagles are moving on to Week 2 with a perfect record intact.  It will be interesting to see how the quarterback situation progresses if Vick throws a couple more games like this, as Nick Foles was very impressive in preseason action.

The Bears are good, but can they overtake the Packers?

Brandon Marshall looked every bit as advertised on Sunday against the Colts, but we shouldn't overreact to the licking that the Bears put on the worst team in the league.  Having said that, there's plenty here.  A strong offense, finally with a weapon at the receiver position, and a very talented defense make the Bears one of the most balanced teams in the league.  If guys stay healthy, the Bears could be the NFC North champs when it's all said and done.  We will find out a lot about both these teams tomorrow night, and we will see who has some mental toughness coming off of a short week.

Second year QBs looked OK in Week 1

Ponder and Gabbert went against each other on Sunday, and both looked like they could be solid NFL quarterbacks this year.  I like Ponder better than Gabbert, but Gabbert put together a decent game.  Look for Ponder to be one of the most improved players this season, and hopefully Blaine will follow suit.

The NFC East and NFC North are the class of the league

With the Redskins on the rise, the NFC East looks to be the toughest division this year.  At the beginning of the season, it was definitely considered a 3-horse race, but after RG3's performance, we can now consider it a 4-team battle.  The NFC North is also incredibly competitive, with 3 teams in the upper echelon in the NFC.  The Vikings may struggle this year, but if Christian Ponder can improve as I think he is capable of, they could be right there at 8-8 when it's all said and done.  I still don't like their secondary, but Harrison Smith looked like a good addition on Sunday.  We all know what the Giants, Eagles, Cowboys, Packers, Lions and Bears are capable of, so either way, both of these divisions are great.

Check back next Wednesday for Week 2 Reactions.

Random Thoughts on NFL Teams: A NFL Preview

MVP (Regular Season): Aaron Rodgers 
He's just really freaking good.  Yah that is my only argument.

NFC

NFC EAST

1. New York Giants
This pains me dearly.  I'm not sure if I'm going to be able to write anything coherent for the rest of the conference. (REVERSE JINX!!!)
2. Philadelphia Eagles
Whole season depends on Vick's health.  He alone can vault this team to Super Bowl contention, but if he's not on the field there not going to make the playoffs.
3. Washington Redskins
In the first Redskins versus Eagles game ESPN is going to play up the whole "running quarterbacks duel" wayyyyyyyyyy to much.  I'm already having nightmares.
4. Dallas Cowboys
Cowboys are a banged up team that has a lot of good players.  Not much depth after their "stars," and crappy offensive line play submarines America's team.

NFC WEST

1. San Francisco 49ers
I except a regression from last year, but with Harbaugh at the helm they'll stay on top of this pathetic division.
2. Seattle Seahawks
All aboard the Russell Wilson bandwagon!  All aboard!  Damn, people are jumping on this bandwagon nearly as fast as the new look Lakers.  Luckily I pre-ordered my ticket when I heard that Matt Flynn was supposed to be the starter.
3. Arizona Cardinals
"Larry Fitzgerald breaks away from the defense.  He's open near the end zone as the pass goes up. (Cardinals fans sighing loudly in background)  Skelton's pass sails out of bounds, and the Cardinals are going to have to punt again."
4. St. Louis Rams
Bradford has looked good in pre-season, but this receiving corps is the only one that I think is worse than the Jets.  The Rams are getting better... it's just not happening fast enough.

NFC NORTH
1. Green Bay Packers
The biggest question entering this Packers season for everyone is, "What will the next discount double check add be about?"
2. Detroit Lions
Assuming Matthew Stafford can stay healthy again this season I expect a very similar season for the Lions.  They are going to throw the ball a ridiculous amount, and luckily they've got Megatron.
3. Chicago Bears
I'm not sure why everyone has decided the Bears are going to be a sleeper team this year.  They have a slightly above-average defense, and a average offense.  However, they have freaking Jay Cutler at quarterback.  Jay Cutler!
4. Minnesota Vikings
I still can't decide whether Christian Ponder is going to be a solid Quarterback or not.  I also can't decide whether Toby Gerhart is a good Running Back or not.  They both appear bad in the scouting report, but look fairly good in game action.

NFC SOUTH
1. Atlanta Falcons
This Falcons team has a ridiculous amount of weapons on offense, and with a solid defense they should catapult to the division title.  The big question though is whether Matt Ryan's "Matty Ice" moniker is a sex-tape name for Matt Ryan or him fantasizing about a rap career.
2. New Orleans Saints
The Saints are the anti-Bears in the NFC this year.  Everyone is way too down on the Saints this year.  If we've learned anything from the last couple football seasons it is that great quarterbacks succeed.  I think the Saints will get worse, but will have a similar season to Detroit circa 2011-2012.  (I can't believe I got throughout without a bounty gate joke).
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I like Josh Freeman to have a bounce back year, but this team just doesn't have enough talent all-around to compete with the Saints and Falcons.
4. Carolina Panthers
I absolutely love Cam Newton.  I absolutely hate the rest of this Panthers team.   Just like last year Cam will generate hype and make some highlights, but this team isn't going anywhere.  (Despite this brilliant add by Matt Kalil)

NFC Wildcards: New Orleans and Detroit (That's right, thought the seeding is different I think the exact same teams will make the NFC playoffs this year.  Yeah now that I think about it, that's probably not going to happen)

NFC Championship Game: Green Bay versus Atlanta (Matty Ice gunning for the Super Bowl)

NFC Champion: Green Bay

AFC

AFC EAST

1. New England Patriots
With the easiest schedule in football, and one of the best teams in football it doesn't take a genius to see the Patriots winning this division.
2. Buffalo Bills
If it's true that Fitzpatrick was injured for most of last season I think the Bills will wind up as one of those 9-7 teams that gets a couple wins over some great team's, but also craps their pants against some bad teams.
3. New York Jets
If the Jets are under 500% after five games this season it's going to be Tebow Time.  In all truthfulness I think that will make this NFL season 5% better.  Even if he sucks (which I'm starting to think he does), he's a helluva lot more exciting to watch than Mark Sanchez.
4. Ryan Tannehill Sucks Miami Dolphins
You know when you're in the same division as Ryan Fitzpatrick, Mark Sachez, and Tim Tebow and you're still the worst quarterback in the division you've got problems.  Ryan Tannehill ladies and gentleman.

AFC WEST
1. Denver Broncos
This is a case of, "well the Raiders have Palmer, the Chiefs have Cassel and Crenell, and the Chargers have Norv.  This is not a case of, "I love the fact that the Broncos have a 36 year old quarterback coming off his fourth neck surgery."  That being said, the Broncos have far and away the best defense in this division.
2. San Diego Chargers
Phillip Rivers and Josh Freeman are buddies in the "we had a lot of hype coming into last year, but then had horrible seasons while throwing a ton of picks" group that is going to bounce back this year.  C'mon Norv I believe in your horrible decision making.
3. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs have a coach and quarterback with a track history of absolutely positively sucking.  However, they have good defensive talent, a solid offensive line, and a nice two-headed backfield monster of Jamaal Charles and Peyton Hillis.
4. Oakland Raiders
Carson Palmer hasn't been good in five years.  Darren McFadden hasn't been healthy his whole life.  The Oakland Raiders haven't had a winning record since 2002.  All of these things will remain to be true.  (I actually expect the Raiders to be like 6-10 or 7-9, bad, but not horrible).

AFC NORTH
1. Baltimore Ravens
Even without T. Sizzle for some of the season the Ravens will be sizzling to first place.  That pun was even worse than I thought it was going to be.
2. Cincinnati Bengals
I expect improvement from Andy Dalton, A.J. Green, and Jermaine Gresham this year.  I also think Benjarvus Green-Ellis is a slight upgrade over Cedric Benson.  Overall the Bengals will just be a better version of last year's team.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
Still got a pretty good defense, but have no running game and only average passing game.  All that means is a big drop for the Steelers.
4. Cleveland Browns
Has the combination of "28 year old rookie QB", "injury prone rookie RB", "shaky offensive line", and "sports team in Cleveland" ever worked out well?  No I didn't think so.

AFC SOUTH
1. Houston Texans
If Matt Schaub has a good season (which means Andre Johnson probably has a good season) this is a super bowl contender.  If not, they are a weak playoff team with a great defense, and the best running game in football.
2. Tennessee Titans
I'm one of the few people who thinks the Titans are a playoff caliber team.  I'm also one of the few people who thinks Jake Locker is not going to suck.  Locker has good threats in the passing game (Nate Washington, Kenny Britt, Kendall Wright), and a dynamic running back to take pressure off him.  With a good defense and offensive line also the Titans are my team that sneaks into the playoffs this year (Every year a team sneaks into the playoffs because they're in a bad division, and they're slightly better than people think.  The Titans are that team.)
3. Indianapolis Colts
Do I think they will be good? No.  Do I think they will be better than the Jaguars? Yes.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars
I have to admit that Blaine Gabbert has looked better this pre-season.  I don't think it's possible that he could have looked any worse.  If the MJD holdout continues the Jaguars might have 0-16 potential.  Last year the Jaguars had the worst offense in the NFL (based on yards per game).  Last year Maurice Jones-Drew accounted for basically 50% of that offense (47.7% to be exact).  I think the message is clear.  The Jaguars should be forcing Jones-Drew to sign at all costs.

AFC Wildcards: Cincinnati and Tennessee (Like I said, Tennessee is undeserving, but will sneak in.)

AFC Championship Game: New England versus Houston (Matt Schaub will be decent this year)

AFC Champion: New England (As a diehard Pats fan, I really didn't want to jinx them by predicting them to do well.  I just looked at the field and decided that the Patriots had clearly the most offensive talent int the AFC, and if the Defense was even a little better than last year they can make it back to the Super Bowl.)

SUPER BOWL WINNER: New England defeats Green Bay  (I repeat my thoughts from above.  I hate predicting my team to win, but they are absolutely loaded offensively.  If the defense becomes only slightly below average I think the Pats will be the best team in football.  I also think Bill Belichek is going to come into this year pissed off, and just command the Patriots to victory.)

Mega Fantasy Sleepers Preview: Steals, Robberies, and Hijackings

Boom goes the Dynamite!!!

In Fantasy Football what's most important when valuing individual players, or your team as a whole is not how well your players perform, but how much your players exceed expectations.  Last year in Fantasy Football Calvin "Megatron" Johnson was fantasy's number one overall receiver.  Victor Cruz meanwhile was the number five scoring fantasy receiver.  If you had the option between Cruz and Megatron last year I don't think anyone would say Cruz.  However, if you could choose between Calvin Johnson in the third round, and an un-drafted Victor Cruz you would be smart to take Cruz.  This is because of a metric I created myself called Value Above Draft Position or VADP.  For example Cruz was an un-drafted player in most standard 10-team leagues with a 16 player roster size.  This means that however many wide receivers are taken within the top 160 Cruz would need to out perform to exceed his draft day value.  This year 50 wide receivers are being taken in the top 160 draft picks on average on ESPN.  Assuming the number was relatively the same Victor Cruz's VADP would be however much he outscored the 50th highest scoring wide receiver.  Last year Victor Cruz scored 198 fantasy points while Mike Williams of Tampa Bay scored 85 points making him the 50th highest scoring wide receiver.  This means Victor Cruz has a 2011 VADP of 113.  Calvin Johnson on the other hand was on average taken in the late second round at 17th overall.  Since Johnson was on average the 5th wide receiver off the board his VADP will compare his point scoring to that of the fifth overall wide receiver.  Coincidentally that receiver happens to be Victor Cruz.  Cruz scored 198 points and Johnson scored 254 giving Johnson a VADP of 56.  This means that while Johnson had a great season, Victor Cruz was more valuable.

By now it should be clear that a fantasy football player should not be judged based on how many points they score, but instead on how valuable that player was.  Here are some players I think are being significantly undervalued, and will end up posting good VADP marks.   A steal is considered a player who I think should be going about a round earlier.  A robbery is considered a player who I think should be going about two rounds earlier.  A hijacking is considered a player who I think should go three or more rounds earlier.  Position by position I'm going to give one hijacking, steal, and robbery.

QB

Steal: Matt Ryan
Matt Ryan is on average going as the 11th quarterback and 62nd overall pick in ESPN live fantasy football drafts.  The Atlanta Falcons have a new offensive coordinator in Dirk Koetter who though he does not have much offensive success in the past has said he is going to open things up in the passing game this year.  Matt Ryan has a great pass catching back in Jacquizz Rodgers, a very good third receiver in Harry Douglas, and two dynamic all-pro receivers that complement each other well.  With both Julio Jones and Roddy White to throw to, and another year in the bag for Ryan I think he should improve upon last year and become a top-ten QB in fantasy football this year.

Robbery: Robert Griffin III

Robert Griffin is on average going as the 13th quarterback and 85th overall pick in ESPN live fantasy football drafts.  RG3 is a rookie quarterback so obviously he is a big risk, but I think he has huge fantasy potential.  The past two seasons the Redskins have insisted on throwing the ball a lot despite the fact that they have had Donovan McNabb, Rex Grossman, and the guy who makes Tim Tebow look like Tom Brady in John Beck throwing the ball.  In fact the Redskins have finished top-five in the league in pass attempts both years with Mike Shanahan as the head coach.  Now that Shanahan has a quarterback with some skill I think there is no reason he wouldn't pass that much, and RG3 should benefit.  I think on passing alone Griffin will be a borderline fantasy starter, and finish somewhere in the 10-12 range at QB.  What makes him special is I think he will also rack up some points via his running ability, and become a top-ten fantasy QB.

Hijacking: Jake Locker

Jake Locker is on average going as the 25th quarterback and the 143rd overall pick in ESPN live fantasy football drafts.  I think Locker's stock will rise a little more after some stellar pre-season performances and recently being named the starter, but the stock won't rise enough.  Jake Locker is an incredible athlete with big arm strength, and a 4.59 40 yard dash time.  That's the same time as fantasy stud and fellow second year quarterback Cam Newton.  Locker has some serious pass accuracy, and decision making issues but the news out of training camp is that he has been dramatically improving.  With all the physical tools to be a stud, a running back like Chris Johnson to take pressure off him, and receiving threats in Kenny Britt, Nate Washington, and rookie Kendall Wright I think Locker will have a good year.  Locker has the upside to be a top-ten QB with his running ability and throwing tools, but at the very least I think he should be a quality backup in ten team leagues who should go as about the 15th quarterback off the board in fantasy drafts.


RB
Steal: Jamaal Charles

"High Five!"

Jamaal Charles is on average going as the 11th running back and the 25th overall pick in ESPN live fantasy football drafts.  Charles has looked great so far in pre-season, and there are no doubts that he will start come week one.  I think it is possible Charles won't be quite the same guy as he was pre-injury, but I think he will be very close to as good.  Another concern with fantasy owners is that Charles will have to compete with Peyton Hillis for goal line work, but that is not a legitimate concern.  In 2010 when Charles posted the 4th best season among running backs that year Thomas Jones rushed for over 1,000 yards while getting most of the goal line work.  Charles is such a dynamic back that he doesn't need to worry about Hillis, and it's not like the Chiefs are going to throw the ball.  I think Charles will end the season around the fifth overall running back (I have him ranked seventh), and should be considered an early second round pick.

Robbery: Cedric Benson

Cedric Benson is on average going as the 38th running back and 105th overall pick in ESPN live fantasy football drafts.  The running backs going 35th to 40th around Benson are Mark Ingram, C.J. Spiller, Donald Brown, Toby Gerhart, and David Wilson.  Ingram is in a time share with Darren Sproles and Pierre Thomas.  Spiller is a backup to Fred Jackson, Donald Brown sucks, Gerhart is a backup to Adrian Peterson, and David Wilson is a backup to Ahmad Bradshaw.  Cedric Benson meanwhile is a clear cut starter who finished as Fantasy's number 23 running back last season.  I guess some people haven't got the memo that James Starks is not going to be sharing carries with Benson because there is no reason he should be going so late.  I'm not saying Benson is a dynamic back by any means (in fact I think Spiller, Wilson, and Gerhart are all much better and are good sleepers/handcuff backs who will do good if the opportunity arises), but in fantasy football opportunity matters more than talent.  Benson is probably not going to get a ton of carries in such a great passing attack, but I think he will slowly trot out a top-30 RB season.  By no means would I draft Benson as a starter in fantasy, but I think he will be a good bye-week fill in and occasional flex play.

Hijacking: Doug Martin

Doug Martin is on average going as the 28th running back and 80th overall pick in ESPN live fantasy football drafts.  Martin is a 5-9 223 pound running back who ran a 4.43 40, is a good pass blocker, and a very capable receiving back.  The player who he reminds most of is Ray Rice.  Rice is a 5-8 212 pound running back who ran a 4.42 40, is a good pass blocker, and a very capable receiving back.  With Legarette "Imma punch you" Blount (a notoriously bad pass blocker, receiving back, and runner) as his only backfield competition I think Martin should get the bulk of the carries for Tampa Bay as soon as he steps on the field.  I think Martin will end the season as a borderline top 20 fantasy running back, and will be a quality starter as a running back two in fantasy football most weeks.

WR
Steal: Brandon Lloyd

Brandon Lloyd is on average going as the 17th wide receiver and the 50th overall pick in ESPN live fantasy football drafts.  Lloyd is an incredibly dynamic deep ball threat who has arguably the best deep ball thrower in football as his quarterback.  Lloyd also has Josh McDaniels who was his offensive coordinator in Denver and St. Louis on the team, and McDaniels loves to throw to Brandon Lloyd.  With Wes Welker, Rob Gronkowski, and Aaron Hernandez all taking the defenses attention away from him Lloyd should be open on a lot of deep balls, and Tom Brady is more than capable of hitting him in stride for the touchdown.  Lloyd will finish as a top-15 wide receiver, and with top-ten upside Lloyd should be going around 35th overall in my mind.  As a Patriots fan still suffering from that brutal Super Bowl defeat I am ecstatic about the addition of Lloyd to this already imposing passing attack.

Robbery: Torrey Smith

Torrey Smith is on average going as the 30th wide receiver and the 89th overall pick in ESPN live fantasy football drafts.  This makes no sense to me at all, and this is why:  Last year Torrey Smith finished as the #22 overall fantasy football wide receiver as a rookie.  Most second year players improve from their past season.  Joe Flacco is a young quarterback who loves to throw the deep ball, and Torrey Smith is super fast and loves to run for the deep ball.  Anquan Boldin was Smith's main competition last year for targets, and he's just getting older.  Smith has looked great for the Ravens so far in pre-season, and should have a great top-20 season at Wide Receiver this year.  In my mind he should be going in the late 6th round making him a "hijacking" who I only called a robbery because the next guy on this last is a true hijacking.

Hijacking: Percy Harvin

Percy Harvin is on average going as the 18th wide receiver and the 56th overall pick in ESPN live fantasy football drafts.  Last year Percy Harvin finished as the #8 wide receiver in fantasy football and was incredible in the second half of last season.  I think Percy Harvin will be able to stay healthy, and be one of the focal points of this Vikings offense.  The news from Vikings camp is that Christian Ponder and Harvin have developed a strong connection, and Harvin should continue to thrive.  With Adrian Peterson coming back from his ACL surgery I think Harvin will get some rushes in the backfield to boost his stats just like he did at the end of last year.  Most importantly Percy Harvin is a super talented receiver, and is the only talented receiver on a Vikings team meaning he is going to get a ton of opportunity.  I think Percy Harvin should be a mid to late third round running back, and will again finish as a top-ten wide receiver in fantasy football.

TE
Steal: Fred Davis

Fred Davis is on average going as the 9th tight end and the 101st overall pick in ESPN live fantasy football drafts.  See Griffin, Robert.  I already talked about how much the Redskins throw the ball.  I already talked about how much I love RG3.  The reason I like Fred Davis is because of his talent, RG3, and Shanahan's offense.  Shanahan traditionally likes to run a lot of QB rollouts, and with a mobile quarterback like Griffin I think that trend will continue.  When a QB runs a rollout the TE is generally a primary option on the play, and I think Davis will get a lot of looks on rollouts this year.  Fred Davis is going in the early 11th round, but I think he will be a quality TE starter and deserves to go around the 9th round.

Robbery: Greg Olsen

Greg Olsen is on average going as the 15th tight end and the 137th overall pick in ESPN live fantasy football drafts.  Last year Cam Newton threw almost exactly 1,000 yards and 9 touchdowns to his tight ends.  Those two tight ends were Greg Olsen and Jeremy Shockey.  This year Jeremy Shockey is not on the team.  I think Olsen has the potential to have a 1,000 yard 10 touchdown season, but at the very least will have a 800 yard six touchdown season.  If he were to have the 800 yard season he would finish with 116 fantasy points which would have put him as the 7th overall fantasy tight end last year.  If Olsen were to have a 1,000 yard 10 touchdown season (which I'd say there is about a 25%-33% chance of) he would have been fantasy's #3 tight end last year behind Graham and Gronkowski.  I think Olsen has big upside, and should be drafted around 7th at tight end, at about the 75th overall pick.

Hijacking: Jermaine Gresham

Jermaine Gresham is on average going as the 17th tight end and the 139th overall pick in ESPN live fantasy football drafts.  Gresham is a 6-5  260 tight end who runs a 4.65 40 and is only 24 years old.  Gresham was fantastic in college at Oklahoma, and earned a first round pick.  With Andy Dalton hopefully improving from last year Gresham should develop a better connection with him.  A.J. Green is the only other receiving threat on this team because Brandon Tate is the #2 WR for this time.  Tate is by no means a up and coming star like Green, so Gresham should get plenty of targets.  Jermaine reminds me of the Graham/Gates type wide receiver like tight ends who just make plays.  Even last year when Gresham didn't have a great connection with Andy Dalton he still finished as the #13 fantasy tight end, and a couple jaw dropping highlights like this: Jermaine Gresham One-Handed Catch

There are a ton of potential sleepers in football, and I could write this article again with completely different people, but these are some of the players I feel the strongest about.  Jake Locker, Doug Martin, Percy Harvin, and Jermaine Gresham I think are all being significantly undervalued, and I will get Martin in Harvin in almost every league (Locker and Gresham are great, but if I have say Rodgers and Graham I'm not going to go after either of them).  All these players are great talents (except for you Cedric Benson), and I think they will all post significantly good VADP numbers.  I created VADP while writing this article to try and explain value of certain players, and I think I will continue to use the statistic in my fantasy football analysis.

Fantasy Football: Running Back Team-by-Team Breakdown

by John and Chris Huffstetler

Philadelphia Eagles everything RB LaSean McCoy

With most fantasy drafts quickly approaching, hopeful fantasy owners are searching for the next breakout Running Back to lead their team to the title. Unfortunately, the RB situation on most NFL teams becomes more muddled each season as the dreaded "running back by committee" situation permeates throughout the league. In order to help you unravel these RB controversies, we will break down every team's RB situation to help you determine which players will emerge and bring in major points this fantasy season.

NFC

East

Washington Redskins- John H.- We'll start our breakdown with the most difficult team to predict in the NFL. I get the feeling Mike Shanahan himself doesn't know who will start at RB for his teams 5 minutes before kickoff. He is notorious for employing the "hot hand" strategy and playing whoever is breaking the big runs at that moment. Tim Hightower, Roy Helu, and Evan Royster all have an opportunity to contribute in any given week, and, therefore, none of them should be drafted. You will just end up frustrated all year. Draft?- No one

CMH:  While this is a muddled backfield, we can still find value in this situation.  Helu is not the guy to draft.  While his stock is plummeting, it still hasn't plummeted enough from that lofty 5th round ADP.  Royster has been starting this preseason, but he lacks burst and he doesn't seem like he will end up being the guy.  Which brings us to Tim Hightower, the Incumbent.  I like Hightower to get the nod whenever he gets back to form, probably week 1 or 2.  The Shanahan's seem to like him, and he has more experience than the rest of the backfield combined.  Draft Hightower in the late rounds.

Philadelphia Eagles- John H.- We quickly go from the most difficult situation to the easiest to predict. Nothing Philly has done this offseason indicates anything but a overwhelming number of carries for LeSean McCoy once again this year. He is a solid workhorse that should not last past #3 in any draft (I would take him #1 overall myself). My only concern is that McCoy did have 321 touches last year, which is an indicator for a potential backslide the following year. I will take the risk at #1 though. Draft?- LeSean McCoy

CMH:  The #1 running back last year, and there's no reason to think he won't do it again.  He's definitely worth the #1 pick, and don't let him slip past #4.

Giants rookie phenom David Wilson

NY Giants- John H.- The RB situation is interesting this year for the "deserving" Super Bowl Champs. They lose pointless power back Brandon Jacobs, while adding in talented rookie David Wilson to complement Ahmad Bradshaw. Wilson showed a big play capability from the moment he set foot on campus at Virginia Tech and flourished even in their stilted, mediocre offense. Bradshaw's foot is an injury disaster waiting to happen and should be avoided at all costs in any fantasy draft. Because of Wilson's obvious talent and Bradshaw's injury concerns, Wilson is a strong draft sleeper to garner a large number of carries for a strong rushing offense. Draft?- David Wilson

CMH:  As much as I hate the Giants, this is one of my favorite backfields in the league.  A lot of talent and a lot of potential for some draft day steals.  David Wilson is a must-grab in the mid-to-late rounds of your draft.  He is explosive and will compete for carries immediately.  DJ Ware is also talented, but it's hard to see where he will fit in with Bradshaw and Wilson in the picture.  Bradshaw will be good this year, and if you draft him in that 4/5 round range, you will probably get exactly what you paid for.  Draft Wilson and Bradshaw here.

Dallas Cowboys- John H.- The 2011 Cowboys backfield was completely unclear entering the season. This year's squad has an obvious #1 in DeMarco Murray and #2 in Felix Jones. Murray showed has big-play capabilities last year late in the season when he earned the starting job. His fractured ankle from late last season is completely meaningless, and he will have a huge season. Helping his cause is the addition of strong veteran FB Lawrence Vickers, who is one of the best in the league. Draft?- DeMarco Murray

CMH: Murray is undervalued this year.  He's definitely worth a second-round pick, and may end up having first-round value.  Draft him.  Everyone else in the backfield is worthless.

North

Detroit Lions- John H.- How many injuries can one team have at RB? The Lions lost their top two in Mikel LeShoure and Jahvid Best for the year early last season and had to rely on off-the-street FA Kevin Smith to lead them on the ground into the playoffs. Heading into this season, Best still hasn't been cleared to play and is a complete unknown for the season. LeShoure, meanwhile, is ready to take the reigns, having suffered his torn ACL before the regular season even began last year. He will miss the first two games of the season, but by week 3, he should be getting 70% of the carries (if Best remains uncleared). Kevin Smith will be the beneficiary once again if both players remain unhealthy. This situation is still quite muddled, but both LeShoure and Smith are worth mid-to-late rounds speculation with the Lions potent offense. Best just can't be trusted. Draft?- Mikel LeShoure or Kevin Smith (if the time is right)

CMH:  Avoid this backfield.  LeShoure has yet to be healthy during his brief stint in the NFL, Kevin Smith is simply not that good, and who knows when Jahvid Best will be back and what his workload will be.  Too many question marks.

Minnesota Vikings- John H.- Adrian Peterson is still a supreme talent and will be the feature of the offense when he returns from his injury, but don't expect the same AD, especially in the first 8 weeks of the year. He will be a second half fantasy value. His draft position is about where he should be selected because of the injury questions. Draft?- Adrian Peterson

CMH:  His quick rehabilitation of the ACL injury just goes to show how much of a freak of nature this guy is.  He's going in the 2nd, but spice things up and pick him in the late-first/early-second.  You won't regret it.

Green Bay Packers- John H.- I'm not even going to bother with this one. No one on the Packers is worth considering. Draft?- No one

CMH:  Benson may have the most value now, but I'm still not even sure if he's worth drafting.

New Bears RB Michael Bush

Chicago Bears- John H.- I've never been a huge fan of Matt Forte since his collegiate days. He wasn't impressive at Tulane and he's shown in the NFL the ability to get exactly what the offensive line gives him and rarely more; however, talent doesn't matter in fantasy. It's all about opportunity, and Forte will get plenty of opportunities. The addition of Michael Bush will replace the carries of Marion Barber, but the main worry with the addition of Bush is his goal line ability. Bush could "Vulture" (god, I hate that term) Forte's goal line carries and rack up some TD's as he has in the past for the Raiders. Draft?- No one but Forte isn't a terrible pick

CMH: I was big on Forte this year before the Michael Bush signing.  Then, before preseason started, I was still high on him, just not as high.  Now, after watching two games, Forte will have trouble finding the endzone all year.  While he will still have tons of touches on the ground and through the air, it's extremely frustrating as a fantasy owner to have Michael Bush taking all your goal line carries.  Since I can't stand it, I'm avoiding this situation.

South

Atlanta Falcons- John H.- Michael Turner has been the feature back in Atlanta since he joined the via free agency back in '08. Turner showed signs last year of a severe lack of burst, making his "burner" nickname more ironic than accurate. He still, however, rushed for 1340 yards and scored 11 TD's on the ground. This season should mark a greater decline off of his strong numbers since joining the Falcons. Quizz Rodgers should also take some of the workload, as he is too talented to keep on the bench. Neither player is worth taking however, as Turner has no value where he will be drafted, but he will also most likely remain healthy most of the year giving no one else an opportunity. Draft?- No One

CMH:  I'm avoiding Turner, but I do like 'Quizz' this year.  Mike Smith has said throughout camp that he sees Rodgers as a 3-down back.  That sounds like the early indications of a RB controversy to me.  It doesn't hurt to invest a late-round pick in Rodgers, especially in deeper leagues.

New Orleans Saints- John H.- Once again, the Saints enter the season with a crowded backfield, leaving few options for fantasy owners. Mark Ingram could have a good season, but it is hard to tell if he will get any more carries than Pierre Thomas, or if they will split touches like last year. The only possible RB to draft, as a result, is Darren Sproles. Sproles finished last year with 86 receptions, and he still has tremendous value in a PPR league, despite the crowded nature of the backfield. Thomas and Ingram will be inconsistent from week to week, which is a recipe for disaster in fantasy leagues. Draft?- Darren Sproles in a PPR or 1/2 PPR

CMH:  Draft Sproles.  That's for sure.  Even if you aren't in a PPR league, he will still have value, just not 3rd round value.  After that, it's cloudy in New Orleans.  I'm a Mark Ingram hater, but I think he will have a good year this year.  He will take over as the feature back in New Orleans, for whatever that's worth.  He definitely has some late-round value.

Enigmatic Bucs RB LeGarrette Blount

Tampa Bay Bucs- John H.- This offseason, the Bucs added marginally talented, but versatile Boise St. back Doug Martin to complement LeGarrette Blount. Martin's avg draft position has been much higher than Blount's so far this year, which shows the perception of most people is that Martin will get the bulk of the carries. After all, first year head coach Greg Schiano did spend his first ever draft choice to select Martin. That says exactly what Schiano thinks of him. There is a track record, however, of rookie RB's that are expected to start disappointing in their first year because of the pressure (see Ryan Mathews and Daniel Thomas). The situation here should be more of a split than most people believe, with Martin handling the passing downs and Blount handling the rushing downs and the goal line situations. There is some definite value in taking Blount late year, and not much in taking Martin early. Draft?- LeGarrette Blount

CMH:  I like Blount's value this year, but all reports have indicated that Doug Martin is absolutely dominating the Bucs camp, and Schiano even said himself that Martin is "doing virtually everything right."  The more I think about it, the more I would steer clear of this backfield situation.  Both of these backs are talented, but both of them could potentially fall short of expectations this year.

Carolina Panthers- John H.- If it's even possible, the Panthers backfield is even more complicated than last year. They add bruising everything back Mike Tolbert from San Diego to DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, giving them a deep and talented backfield. There is no way to draft any player, however, as the breakdown should be about even between Williams and Stewart with a few carries for Tolbert sprinkled in. Draft?- No One

CMH:  I like Jonathan Stewart more than most do this year.  Newton will be running less this year, and somebody will have to punch the ball into the endzone.  Stewart is the man for the job.  Look for 12 TDs from him, putting him in that RB2/RB3 range.

West

Niners rookie LaMichael James is the truth. Don't listen to CMH.

San Francisco 49ers- John H.- The Niners backfield is suddenly quite crowded for Frank Gore. This past offseason, they added Brandon Jacobs via free agency and LaMichael James in the draft to join Gore and Kendall Hunter. There is NO WAY that Gore will be able to come close to his production from even last season. Harbaugh brought these other backs in for a reason, and it appears like the Niners will be using the Saints model of RB-by-committee based on situation. The only player worth drafting is LaMichael James on a late flier because he's just too talented to keep on the sideline (think Darren Sproles). Draft?- LaMichael James

CMH: While James is supremely talented, he is currently sitting 4th on the depth chart, so it'll be tough for him to see the field.  All reports out of the Niners camp have praised Kendall Hunter's performance thus far, and I think he is the RB to grab in the late rounds here.  Avoid Gore like the plague, but feel free to grab Hunter in the later rounds.

Marshawn Lynch aka Beast Mode

Seattle Seahawks- John H.- Beast mode will be in full effect again this year in Seattle. The Seahawks did add a Lynch clone in Robert Turbin through the draft, but Turbin will mainly just spell Lynch when he is tired. He offers nothing different in terms of a skill set than Lynch, which means Lynch will still; receive a large majority of the snaps. Draft?- Marshawn Lynch

CMH: Marshawn is a solid second round pick.  Grab him if you can, sit back, and get your Skittles ready.



St. Louis Rams- John H.- Unlike Lynch's situation in Seattle, Jackson has a legitimate new added threat to his touches in 2nd rd pick Isaiah Pead. Pead is a prototype change-of-pace back in the NFL with the ability to take some carries and catch a large volume of passes out of the backfield. St. Louis, however, added 3 OL (including to projected starters) and can only improve upon their terrible offensive line play from last season. Consequently, they should improve offensively across the board under Jeff Fisher and Jackson's numbers should increase despite the increased competition. Draft?- Steven Jackson

CMH: Steven Jackson will be a workhorse this year, and Pead will be a nice change of pace.  Nothing new here--draft Steven Jackson in the 3rd like you have the past 8 years.

Arizona Cardinals- John H.- Ryan Williams and Beanie Wells will both receive a large number of carries this year. Do not get fooled by Beanie's success last year after Williams went down for the season. This was designed to be a split-carry backfield, and it will be for as long as these two remain healthy this season. There is some value in drafting Williams of you get him late, but Wells should be avoided at all costs. Draft?- Ryan Williams late

CMH: Ryan Williams has some great late-round value, and Beanie should get a higher percentage of the red zone touches.  Whoever stays healthy will have the better year, so draft Ryan Williams here.

AFC

East

New England Patriots- John H.- Another year, another crowded backfield in New England. Stevan Ridley is the most likely candidate to receive the majority of the carries, but Shane Vereen, Danny Woodhead, Joseph Addai, and now Jeff Demps could all receive touches out of the backfield as well. Someone needs to replace, BJGE's 181 carries from last year, however, and Ridley is the strongest every-down back. Still, I would wait to see who emerges in the regular season and pass on everyone in the draft. Draft?- No One

CMH: Pass-happy offense.  5 guys competing for carries.  Not exacly your favorite fantasy situation.  Reports from camp are that Ridley is back to his old fumbling ways, and the coaches are now starting to favor Vereen.  Regardless, neither is worth drafting.  Aaron Hernandez might be the best ball-carrier on this team.

Buffalo Bills- John H.- The only thing keeping CJ Spiller from being a star in this league is Chan Gailey. All due respect to Fred Jackson, but Spiller is too talented to keep on the bench. Both players should get ample touches this season, since Buffalo uses their RB's in the passing game frequently (78 combined catches). Gailey has also floated the idea of using Spiller more frequently as a slot receiver. Once all of the feature backs (Lynch, Jackson, Murray, McFadden, etc.) are taken, Jackson is worth taking. Spiller has major value later in the draft. Draft?- Fred Jackson or CJ Spiller

CMH: Both of these guys are being underrated during draft day.  They will both be big fantasy factors for where they are being picked, so feel free to reach for both of them in your respective drafts.

Awful Jets feature back Shonn Greene

New York Jets- John H.- Anticipate Shonn Greene getting a decided majority of carries again this year, but Joe McKnight and Tim Tebow will get their names called as well in the rushing game. Of all the clear feature backs in the league, Shonn Greene is by far the worst one in terms of talent and fantasy value. He won't blow anyone away with his stats this year, but he will get at least 250 touches this year barring injury. If the choice is between Greene, Jonathan Stewart, Roy Helu, and Reggie Bush (3 players getting selected ahead of him on average according to ESPN stats), there is no question you should select Greene because of his extra opportunities. Draft?- Shonn Greene

CMH: Shonn Greene is awful, and it doesn't make sense why the Jets are fully invested in him as their running back.  I wouldn't pick him ahead of Bush, especially in PPR formats, and I'd be hesitant to take him over Jonathan Stewart, despite his heavy workload.  If you do select Shonn Greene, keep an eye out for Bilal Powell, a name you may not have heard before.  He is already getting the third-down reps with the first team, and I fully expect him to eat away at Greene's carries as the season progresses.  Right now, however, Powell is not worth a look, and Greene isn't either.

Sidenote: The Jets will be one of the worst teams in the league this year.

Miami Dolphins- John H.- With the Dolphins likely downgrading at QB and starting rookie Ryan Tannehill, more pressure will be put on the running game to perform at a high level. Bush and Thomas essentially split carries last year (Bush with 216 and Thomas with 165 with a few games out injured), but Bush added 43 catches in the passing game. This year should be more of the same with these two getting a relatively even split of touches; however, the Dolphins also added rookie Lamar Miller, who could steal a few carries from both of them. Teams questioned Miller's maturity level and NFL readiness prior to the draft slipping him down to the 4th round, so I would expect Miller to play limited snaps in his first season or two. Thomas is the back here with the greatest upside because he will be drafted late and could end up getting a majority of carries, including goal line touches. Draft?- Daniel Thomas

CMH: Bush in PPR formats; Thomas in standard scoring formats.  Bush may have better stats in both respects, but Thomas will be more valuable in standard leagues.  They are both worth a look on draft day.

North

Baltimore Ravens- Ray Rice should be a top 3 draft pick. Rock solid. Draft?- Ray Rice

CMH: Rice is a stud. Feel free to draft him #1.

Steelers RB Rashard Mendenhall following his injury last season

Pittsburgh Steelers- The recent news that Rashard Mendenhall might be ready for play early in the regular season has changed the Steelers backfield situation dramatically. Isaac Redman looked like he would be a solid sleeper pick in the middle rounds of the draft, but with Mendenhall's potential return midway through the regular season, Redman's stock takes a small hit. I still think he's worth taking and question how ready Mendenhall will be even when he returns to the field. Mendenhall shouldn't be drafted because before he's ready to play, it's likely that you will need an extra roster spot and release him. Draft? Isaac Redman

CMH: Here's one where I'm going to have to completely disagree.  I see Redman as one of the most overrated fantasy options this year.  He has limited burst and he's already banged up this preseason.  With the news that Mendenhall may be ready after the Week 4 bye, that only proves my point even more.  Not to mention, Jonathan Dwyer will be pushing both of them for carries throughout the season, as he's come into camp in the "best shape of his life."  Your guess is as good as mine as to who will eventually get the bulk of the carries in this offense, and whoever it is--they are worth a late-round pick.  But steer clear of Redman in the middle rounds, as Mendenhall and Dwyer are being drafted much later, and I like both of them more.

Cincinnati Bengals- John H.- BenJarvus Green-Ellis comes to town as the likely starter to replace the remarkably average Cedric Benson. Cincy has a strong offensive line (although better in pass protection than run blocking), and any RB will produce more than Benson's 3.9 ypc last season. This gives BJGE tremendous value if he were to get a decided majority of the carries. The problem is that Marvin Lewis has said he will split carries with Bernard Scott. Overall, they should produce better numbers, but neither player is worth drafting given the situation. Draft?- No One

CMH: Probably the least sexy backfield in the league right now.  If you want some average numbers, Green-Ellis is an average draft pick.  Double-digit touchdowns and 800 yards seems about right for him.  Scott has little fantasy value.  I'd steer clear of both, but Green-Ellis will be better.

Browns rookie RB Trent Richardson

Cleveland Browns- John H.- Despite Trent Richardson's preseason injury concerns, he remains a viable fantasy option. The Browns will need to run the ball effectively if they plan on starting Brandon Weeden at QB this season. Richardson will get a large bulk of those carries because the other options (Hardesty and Ogbonnaya) are definite downgrades. If neither player could unseat a struggling and injured Peyton Hillis last season, they won't be able to gain carries against a talent like Trent Richardson. Draft?- Trent Richardson

CMH: By no means am I buying into this Cleveland offense, but Trent Richardson will have a solid year running the football.  He's not worth a 2nd/3rd round pick after his injury, however.  He needs a lot of touches in this unproven offense to rack up fantasy points, and the Browns are sure to ease him in after the injury.  Also, Hardesty has run well this preseason, taking some of the pressure off the coaching staff to use Richardson.  By the end of the year, he may be a legitimate RB1, but for now, I see Richardson as a low-end RB2 with upside.

South

Houston Texans- John H.- With their 2nd ranked rushing offense, the Texans approached having two 1,000 yard rushers last season. Arian Foster is an obvious top 3 draft pick (although I would draft McCoy and Rice ahead of him), but the question is whether Ben Tate is worth selecting in the mid-rounds. No. Back-ups can never be consistent scorers in fantasy, and drafting a player hoping that a player gets injured is incredibly foolish (why drafting "handcuffs" is one of the dumbest strategies in fantasy football). Draft? Arian Foster

CMH: Don't let Foster slip past you in your draft.  If he's available, you should pick him, no matter where you're picking.  Look for Foster to stay healthy this year, making Ben Tate worthless.

Jags holdout RB Maurice Jones-Drew

Jacksonville Jaguars- John H.- Because of the MJD contract holdout, this would be the one legitimate situation to "handcuff" the starter if you chose to draft him. With MJD's draft position continuing to drop as his holdout continues, he is gaining value in the late-first/early-second round, but drafting Rashad Jennings (the clear replacement and a solid player in his own right) late in the draft would be a smart idea here. Draft?- MJD but get Rashad Jennings late also if you do

CMH: With Jones-Drew's holdout, I worry about his fantasy value this year.  He's usually a sure-fire top-5 RB, but running backs have a history of performing very poorly after holdouts.  Even though all reports say that Jones-Drew will be back by Week 1, I don't think he has the same first round value.  If you can get him in the second, however, it's a steal.  Jennings makes sense as a late-round grab, whether you have MJD or not, and he's looked great in preseason.  Draft MJD and Jennings.

Indianapolis Colts- John H.- Everyone is terrible and no one knows who will start. Draft?- No one

CMH: The team is horrendous and they have a committee of running backs.  Stay away and stop waiting for Donald Brown to have his "breakout year."

Tennessee Titans- John H.-After getting lazy last year during his holdout and missing most of training camp, Chris Johnson had a disappointing season. With Johnson's YPC down to 4.0 last year, Kenny Britt's injury, and the dreadful play of Matt Hasselbeck, the Titans offense struggles to point points on the board. With Britt returning healthy at some point early this season and Jake Locker taking over at QB (hopefully for the Titans sake), the passing game should improve and open up space for Johnson. Johnson will have a dramatically better season and is absolutely worth a 1st round pick. Draft?- Chris Johnson

CMH:  Considering you can find him on the board at 8 or 9, CJ is the most valuable pick in this year's fantasy draft.  He's my favorite to finish the season with the most fantasy points for RB's, especially if Locker gets the nod as starter and we see more of a 'Run and Gun' offense in Nashville.  Johnson ran well against Tampa last week, and he has added 20 pounds to his frame.  With a full training camp under his belt, we should see CJ in midseason form by Week 1.

West

Denver Broncos- John H.- With the change at QB from Tim Tebow to Peyton Manning, the Broncos will certainly shift to a more pass-oriented attack, and will not approach leading the league in rushing as they did last year. The Broncos also add in supremely talented little-known rookie Ronnie Hillman, who has the potential to take over as the starter at any point this season. Major draft bust Knowshon Moreno also returns from injury hoping to revamp his disappointing career. All three of these factors will precipitate a major drop in production from Willis McGahee this season, making him undraftable. With the potential for Hillman to garner major carries this season and his ability to catch passes out of the backfield, he is worth a late-round speculative pick if you have the patience to hold onto him for a few weeks. Draft?- Ronnie Hillman

CMH: Ronnie Hillman is a talented player, but he's had no time to prove himself this training camp between injuries, and he's currently listed as the third RB in Denver.  While I could see Hillman eventually working his way into a timeshare by the end of the year, this is still McGahee's backfield.  He's worth a late-round pick.  Knowshon Moreno is a fantasy non-factor, currently sitting at fourth on the depth chart.  Steer clear.

Chargers RB Ryan Mathews

San Diego Chargers- John H.- Ironically, the injury to Ryan Mathews has dramatically improved his potential value in fantasy drafts. A broken collarbone is a much faster and easier injury for a RB to recover from than a tendon or joint injury. Mathews could even be ready by week 1, yet his draft stock has slide to late 3rd/early 4th round. Putting the injury aside, the Chargers lost goal line back Mike Tolbert in free agency, and Mathews should get significantly more carries in the red zone. Additionally, there is not one other quality RB on the roster. The Chargers have the thinnest backfield in the league, and Mathews will get a large majority of the carries whenever he returns to the field. Draft?- Ryan Mathews

CMH: Until Mathews proves to me that he can stay healthy, I won't draft him again.  He has top-5 RB value this year, but I just can't trust him.  Having said that, draft him anywhere after the first round, but steer clear of him in the first round, where he was going before the injury.

Oakland Raiders- John H.- The question for Darren McFadden has been, and always will be, his health. When fully healthy, few in the league are more talented than Run DMC, and if he remains healthy this season, this could be his best year yet from a fantasy perspective because of the departure of goal line beast Michael Bush. DMC should get more goal line carries than ever before with the two main backups being smaller, more versatile backs in Mike Goodson and Taiwan Jones. Drafting him is a gamble, but it is a gamble I'm willing to take. Draft?- Darren McFadden

CMH:  Out of all the elite fantasy running backs, McFadden has the lowest floor, but he may also have the highest ceiling.  If he stays healthy, he will finish as a top-4 back this season.  Draft him late in the first round.

KC Chiefs- John H.- The problem with the Chiefs backfield this year is that they are too talented and deep. Jamal Charles, Peyton Hillis, and Dexter McCluster are all unique talents deserving of 200 touches this year, but there is only one ball. Jamal Charles should clearly be the feature back getting the bulk of the carries, but his 2nd round draft grade might be too high considering his injury issues and the competition for carries. McCluster, on the other hand, should get a number of touches in the passing game with a now healthy Matt Cassel. With his late round grade, he could be a steal this season. Draft?- Dexter McCluster and consider Jamal Charles in the 3rd round because of his supreme talent

CMH: A crowded backfield in KC, but still a valuable fantasy situation.  McCluster has value in PPR formats, but I'd steer clear in standard leagues.  Hillis will be a touchdown vulture, and he should average 15-18 touches a game.  I like his value in the 9th round or later.  Charles should also see 15-18 touches a game, and drafting him in the late second/early third seems like a no brainer.  He will break some huge runs this year.  Draft? Charles/Hillis.

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