Think back to back to Sunday December 4th. The Giants had lost 4 straight games to drop to 6-6 and the Pats had struggled defensively in consecutive tight wins over the lowly Colts and Redskins. The following week, the Pats throttled a hot Denver team that had previously won 6 straight, and the Giants rallied late in miraculous fashion to beat the Cowboys and take control of the division. Neither team looked back after that putting together strong postseason performances against difficult squads to meet each other in the Super Bowl. Not only did the Pats lose to this Giants team back in week 8, but they also ended the Pats historic undefeated season back in 2008 with a lucky come from behind win. Those two games provide interesting background for this matchup between teams from states that traditionally hate each other. The line for this game currently sits at New England -3 with most experts split on who will emerge victorious. In order to dissect this complex game, let's take a look at the major factors that will determine the winner.
Turnover Margin
This is the main factor that will determine who wins on Sunday. In their meeting earlier this season, the Giants were able to pressure Brady, forcing him into 2 ints and 1 fumble on their way to a +2 TO margin. For them to win on Sunday, they MUST be in the positive on TO margin once again. Both teams had almost identical TO margins in the regular season with New England 3rd in the league at +0.8/game and New York 5th at +0.6/game. The most logical prediction then for the game would be a turnover margin of 0, which benefits the New England side as the more efficient offensive unit. Edge: New England
Injuries
Obviously, the main injury concern heading into Sunday is Pats star TE Rob Gr
onkowski. He will undoubtedly play, but should he play at less than 100%, that would severely hamper the Pats offensive production. I expect that he won't be at full strength because of the nature of the high ankle sprain injury. The only other major injury issue for the Pats is OL Sebastian Vollmer. He has yet to play in the playoffs and even if healthy, he could play a sub-par game because of his rust. On the Giants side, Ahmad Bradshaw not practicing on Friday is a huge red flag. His foot kept him out of 4 games earlier this year and he purports to have had pain in his foot ever since those absences. If he suffered a setback and Jacobs and DJ Ware need to take more of the RB duties, that would dramatically limit their versatility at that position. Jacobs can run, Ware can receive, but Bradshaw does both when he's on the field. Still, the Gronk injury is the most severe. Edge: NY GiantsQB Play
Eli Manning will never be Tom Brady. Brady late in the game has the potential to turn a defeat into a win if he has any time left on the clock. The Giants either need to have a lead larger than 8 or run the clock out to not give Brady a chance to steal a victory. Edge: New England
Defensive Front Seven
The Giants front seven is playing their best football of the year at the moment
with Boley and Umenyiora healthy and playing at high levels; however, so is New England's with Vince Wilfork dominating the interior. Wilfork should give the Giants interior offensive lineman huge issues inside. He will certainly command double and triple teams following his performance last week against the Ravens. Despite this situational advantage, the Giants have the much stronger front seven unit. Their ability to put pressure on Brady is integral to their success in this game, and they should be able to force Brady into some early throws and mistakes. Edge: New York Giants.Prediction
New England 27 NY Giants 24
This should be a close game and the line at -3 is unplayable. The game is too tight and the prediction too difficult with the health of Gronkowski in question. Brady wins the game with a late TD drive to revenge the loss in 2008. Enjoy a great game everyone.
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Tennis,
ReplyDeleteYou are wrong in your analysis and prediction of this game.
The Giants will come out running the ball. I feel that Bradshaw will be effective, drawing an extra man into the box and opening up the passing game, as early as the mid-first half. Bradshaw's sitting on Friday is no change from the weekly work he has taken all year...they are just being careful.
The QB advantage is not as strong as you suggest. Your Michigan love of Rosie Palm and Her Five Sister's (aka Tom Brady)should not discredit the fact that Eli set NFL records for 4th Q production this year. Eli's late game presence and resume are on par with Rosie Palm's....this cannot be denied. Nor can the fact that Manning has the far more explosive options and will be opposing a depleted secondary. Rosie will have to be dealing with the strongest past rush in the league and a secondary that has been playing its best football of the season over the last 6 weeks. (should one go on the last 6 weeks alone, you would put the Giants secondary in the top 10 of the league. they have the talent.). On a QB-to-QB comparison, I'll give Rosie Palm the slight advantage. On a passing attack-to-passing attack comparison, the Giants come ahead favorably.
Unfortunately, the angles on this game are played as hell: if Gronkowski is as hurt as I suspect, thats a big deal. Regardless, its all about the GMEN defensive pressure vs Rosie Palm and Her Five Sisters.
The Giants and their head coach seem to understand the formula for playing the Patriots. Or no? Unless i'm missing something, the Giants match up favorably everywhere you look across the board. I just don't see a Pats advantage. And considering the turnover margin argument, lets look at the playoffs exclusively: Giants +4 in 3 games. Pats -4 in 2 games. Just saying....
My gut was giving me the same feeling heading into tomorrow as heading into Green Bay a few weeks ago: I don't see how the Pats match up with the Giants, and I'm looking the Giants to win going away. Two touchdowns, at least.
Nothing but the ravings of a crazed and biased fan, Grant. You are certainly correct in your assertion that the Giants defensive pressure could be a major factor in the game, but your interpretation of the playoff turnover margin is misguided. The sample size is small compared to the entire season of work. The larger sample size deserves more attention than the recent TO margin edge of the Giants. Further, your belief that the Giants running game will somehow influence the result of this contest is ludicrous. Neither team will establish the run in a significant enough fashion to influence the outcome of this game. This will come down to the Giants stopping Brady and the Pats stopping Eli, and on that basis, I give an edge to the Pats.
DeleteThere is a 0% chance that the game ends with the Giants ahead by more than two touchdowns. You should at least make that statement more reasonable as to not appear completely biased. As you know, I do love Tom Brady, but that in no way influenced my thoughtful opinion of this game.
PS There is moderate to strong chance I drive to New Jersey to kill you if the Giants win. I already discussed the plan with Jeff and he seems to be on board as well.
This Convo is great...although I am pissed as shit about the outcome its still hilarious and Jhoof was correct about pretty much everything other than the assumption Brady would outplay manning....Giants won because Manning stepped up when it mattered and Brady didn't.
Delete"Eli Manning will never be Tom Brady. Brady late in the game has the potential to turn a defeat into a win if he has any time left on the clock. The Giants either need to have a lead larger than 8 or run the clock out to not give Brady a chance to steal a victory. Edge: New England
DeleteThis is great. Tennis Huffstetler publicly making himself out to be a fool. Brady has now had the ball in his hands with a chance to win the game TWICE in super bowls v. Eli Manning and come out a loser.
On Gronk injury: "He will undoubtedly play, but should he play at less than 100%, that would severely hamper the Pats offensive production. I expect that he won't be at full strength because of the nature of the high ankle sprain injury."
DeleteOn turnover margin: "This is the main factor that will determine who wins on Sunday. In their meeting earlier this season, the Giants were able to pressure Brady, forcing him into 2 ints and 1 fumble on their way to a +2 TO margin. For them to win on Sunday, they MUST be in the positive on TO margin once again."
Both of these game assessments seem pretty spot on. I think my preview was beyond accurate and astute.
Tennis,
ReplyDeleteWhen the GMEN take it by 17 today (which is the number I have in my head), you can drive up here and smoke me yourself.
The following people and organizations can suckle-scoof my coof:
The Patriots
The Falcons
Tom Brady
U. of Michigan
The Braves
Bill Belichik
Logan Mankins