Thursday, December 15, 2011

Picking Every Week 15 NFL Game ATS

Pick in CAPS

Jacksonville (+12) @ ATLANTA

Jacksonville has been playing with some intensity under interim head coach Mel Tucker.  Look for Jones-Drew to continue having success on the ground, and I expect a few turnovers from Matt Ryan.  I think this one stays close, but I can't legitimately put my money on the Jaguars, and the Falcons are good at stopping the run.  If Blaine Gabbert is forced to win this game, it's going to be a long day for the Jaguars.  But the Falcons are 2-2-2 ATS at home this year, which isn't very compelling.  All things considered, I would steer clear of this line, but for our compulsive bettors, take the Falcons.

Atlanta 28, Jacksonville 14

DALLAS (-7) @ Tampa Bay

Dallas has had two heart-breaking games in a row, and they just lost Demarco Murray for the year.  Needless to say, luck has not been on their side.  But I see this as one of the more favorable lines this week.  The Bucs have lost 7 straight, and they looked absolutely awful last week against the Jags.  The Cowboys are mad, and the Bucs just made themselves Dallas' punching bag for the week.  Take the Cowboys and get some free money.

Dallas 38, Tampa Bay 17

Washington (+7) @ NY GIANTS

The last time these two teams met, the Redskins came away with a two touchdown win in Week 1.  The game will be completely different this time around, as the Redskins offense, and in particular offensive line, has been decimated by injuries.  I'd expect the Giants to pressure Rex Grossman, and he will make some costly mistakes.  Look for the Giants to win this one by a few scores.

NY Giants 31, Washington 19

GREEN BAY (-14) @ Kansas City

The Chiefs looked awful last week.  They have Tyler Palko at quarterback.  I don't care how solid the defense plays, they won't keep this game within 14 points.  Green Bay all the way in this one.

Green Bay 38, Kansas City 7

NEW ORLEANS (-7) @ Minnesota

The Saints are always clicking on all cylinders when they play indoors, so barring another Metrodome collapse, I see this one being a blowout.  Also, the Saints are playing for the division and a first round bye, so a victory is huge for them.

New Orleans 38, Minnesota 24

SEATTLE (+3.5) @ Chicago

I was pretty surprised to see the Seahawks getting points in this one, considering how well the defense has been playing.  I think the Hawks win this game, as Caleb Hanie has really been struggling at QB for the Bears.  Also, the Over/Under is 36, and I'd be very inclined to take the UNDER in this one.

Seattle 17, Chicago 10

Carolina (+6.5) @ HOUSTON

Houston is 9-3-1 ATS this year, including 4-1-1 at home.  Despite losing their starting quarterback, best wide receiver, and best defensive player, they are finding ways to win and cover.  This week, Wade Phillips took a leave of absence, but I expect the running game to excel against a porous Panthers defense.  Look for Foster and Tate to both have big days.

Houston 31, Carolina 21

TENNESSEE (-7) @ Indianapolis

Indianapolis is 1-5 ATS this year at home, and they might be the worst team in NFL history without Manning.  On the other hand, Tennessee has played well on the road this year, and you pretty much have to take them in this one.  The Titans have a good defense, and the Colts will struggle to score just like last week against the Ravens.

Tennesse 24, Indianapolis 13

CINCINNATI (-6.5) @ St. Louis

St. Louis is 2-11 ATS this year, and their two covers have been in their 2 victories.  They won't win this game, and they won't cover.  Bengals defense is too tough.

Cincinnati 27, St. Louis 14

DETROIT (-1.5) @ Oakland

The Raiders haven't looked good lately, and Carson Palmer has been turnover prone.  Also, the Raiders have struggled ATS at home this year.  I would pick the Lions here, but it is not one of the better lines this week.  The Raiders are a decent football team, so they could always surprise you.

Detroit 28, Oakland 24

NEW ENGLAND (-6) @ Denver

Denver is 1-4-1 ATS at home this year, and they haven't been great in the first three quarters.  If Tim Tebow and the offense can show up and play all four quarters, then they have a legitimate chance of winning this game.  But I see the Patriots racking up an insurmountable lead early, and the Broncos doing their best to come back late.  I like New England here.

New England 31, Denver 23

New York Jets (+3) @ PHILADELPHIA

I'm not buying into the Jets offense suddenly being good, or Shonn Greene suddenly being a great running back.  I think this team is brought back down to Earth this week, and the Eagles win by a good margin.  The Eagles still have two things to play for:  they are holding onto slim playoff hopes, and if that doesn't work out they may still be able to end this season with their pride (although unlikely).  I like the Eagles.

Philadelphia 31, New York Jets 21

Cleveland (+7) @ ARIZONA

If there's one thing I learned the past two weeks, it's don't bet against the Cardinals at home.  They have looked rock solid these past few weeks, and this defense is playing as well as anyone right now.  Couple that with Larry Fitzgerald playing like we are used to, and you have a recipe for victory.

Arizona 24, Cleveland 9

BALTIMORE (-2.5) @ San Diego

I laughed a little when I saw this line.  San Diego isn't good.  Ravens win.

Baltimore 24, San Diego 17

Pittsburgh (+2.5) @ SAN FRANCISCO

San Francisco is 6-0-1 ATS at home this year.  This is the only reason I picked the 49ers.  Before seeing that statistic, I was leaning heavily towards the Steelers.  I would steer clear of this one, as this game is the definition of a toss-up.

San Francisco 16, Pittsburgh 13

2 comments:

  1. Wow, Chris, you do realize you picked all favorites to cover but Chicago? That's impossible. I know the underdogs look terrible, but there will be several upsets this week. NY Jets rush defense has improved dramatically from early in the season and I still have questions about Philly's motivation. The NE/Den is now at 7.5 and I would be looking Denver's way. NE's defense is too shaky to cover their high spreads (see Indy and Wash games). KC will make the switch this week to Ricky Stanzi, who should have more ability to protect the football than Palko. I also think Wash and Oak could be game this week, with the Giants coming off the big road win in Dallas and Oak gettong slightly healthier at the WR position.

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