by John Huffstetler
Updated through Friday February 24th
Cal- Record- 23-6 (13-3 in Pac-12)
Games Remaining- at Colo, at Stan
Ken Pom Rating- 19
Ken Pom SOS- 119
Quality Wins (vs. Ken Pom Top 75)- Denver, UCLA x 2, Ore x 2, Wash, Stan
Bad Losses- at Wash St.
Record vs. Other Bubble Teams- 3-1- Wins over UCLA x 2, Wash and a Loss to Ariz
In or Out right now- In- Cal is the top at-large contender from the Pac-12 conference, but they still have major flaws. The schedule (like most of the conference) has been relatively easy, and in the few opportunities Cal had to earn quality wins out of conference, they failed. Their most impressive (if you can call it that) non-conference win was an easy home victory over a Denver squad notorious for their strong home record and poor road performances. They have virtually dominated in the Pac-12 conference, with the exception of a home loss to Arizona. Because of their strong conference record, they should still make the NCAA field.
Arizona- Record- 20-9 (11-5 in Pac-12)
Games Remaining- vs. UCLA, at Ariz St.
Ken Pom Rating- 41
Ken Pom SOS- 98
Quality Wins (vs. Ken Pom Top 75)- at NM St., Clem, at Cal, at Stan
Bad Losses- None
Record vs. Other Bubble Teams- 1-4- Win over Cal and Losses to Miss St., Ore, Wash x 2
In or Out right now- Out- Like Cal, the Wildcats have a lack of quality wins out of conference. In fact, with the exception of one week where they went on the road to beat both Cal and Stanford, they have virtually no quality wins. To their credit, they avoided bad losses all season long, with their worst loss coming at home against a hot Washington squad. The Wildcats might need to win the Pac-12 tourney (or at least make a deep run) to get in the field.
Washington- Record- 19-8 (12-3 in Pac-12)
Games Remaining- at Wash St., at USC, at UCLA
Ken Pom Rating- 71
Ken Pom SOS- 85
Quality Wins (vs. Ken Pom Top 75)- Ore, Stan, Ariz x 2, UCLA
Bad Losses- at Nevada
Record vs. Other Bubble Teams- 4-1- Wins over Ore, Stan, Ariz x 2 and a Loss to Ore
In or Out right now- In- They get the nod over Arizona because they swept the Wildcats this season in 2 meetings. Washington earned zero quality wins out of conference, but they did play Duke and Marquette to tight finishes in Madison Square Garden back in December. Those tight losses coupled with their strong Pac-12 record gets them in the field right now. They have 3 road games remaining, however, and a poor performance down the stretch could bounce them to the NIT.
Oregon- Record- 19-8 (10-5 in Pac-12)
Games Remaining- at Ore St., vs. Colo, vs. Utah
Ken Pom Rating- 70
Ken Pom SOS- 78
Quality Wins (vs. Ken Pom Top 75)- Stan x 2, Ariz, UCLA, Wash
Bad Losses- None
Record vs. Other Bubble Teams- 2-4- Wins over Ariz, Wash and Losses to BYU, Wash, Cal x 2
In or Out right now- Out- Like every other Pac-12 bubble team, they have zero quality non-conference wins, but they make this list because they have performed well in the Pac-12. In their 3 difficult non-conference games, they lost at Vandy, at BYU, and at home against UVA all by double-digits. They did manage to avoid bad losses all season, they are most likely in need of 3 straight wins down the stretch to warrant consideration heading into the Pac-12 tourney.
Locks- New Mexico, SD St., UNLV
Colorado St.- Record- 17-9 (6-5 in Mountain West)
Games Remaining- at San Diego St., vs. UNLV, at Air Force
Ken Pom Rating- 87
Ken Pom SOS- 58
Quality Wins (vs. Ken Pom Top 75)- San Diego St., NMex, Wyo, Den
Bad Losses- at TCU, at Boise St.
Record vs. Other Bubble Teams- 0-1- Loss to SMiss
In or Out right now- Out- The recent win over New Mexico helps, but the Rams just don't have enough quality wins to get in the field. They do, however, have two more opportunities for quality wins against struggling San Diego St. and UNLV squads. If they can win out, the addition of those quality victories would be enough to get them in the field. Anything short of that unlikely scenario and the Rams will be watching the tourney this year.
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