Updated through Sunday February 26th
Other Conferences
Locks- Gonzaga, Wichita St., Creighton, Murray St.
St. Mary's- Record- 25-5 (14-2 in WCC)
Games Remaining- None
Ken Pom Rating- 41
Ken Pom SOS- 184
Quality Wins (vs. Ken Pom Top 75)- BYU x 2, Gonzaga,
Bad Losses- LoyMarymount (Home)
Record vs. Other Bubble Teams- 3-2- Wins over BYU x 2, Gonzaga and Losses to Gonzaga, Murray St.
In or Out right now- In- The Gaels appear to be safe heading into the WCC tourney, but there are some red flags with this team that could keep them home with an early tourney exit. They have zero quality non-conference wins, instead, their resume hinges on two wins over a decent BYU squad. In 4 of their 5 road games against Ken Pom top 100 squads (at Murray St., at Baylor, at Denver, and at Gonzaga), they lost in unimpressive, double-digit fashion. They remain on this list despite their 25 wins because there is a chance that the committee could look at their body of work and decide that they didn't do enough to warrant a bid. They should, however, make it in the field.
Harvard- Record- 24-4 (10-2 in Ivy)
Games Remaining- at Columbia, at Cornell
Ken Pom Rating- 35
Ken Pom SOS- 178
Quality Wins (vs. Ken Pom Top 75)- Florida St. (neutral), UCF (neutral), St. Joe's
Bad Losses- at Fordham, Penn (Home), at Princeton
Record vs. Other Bubble Teams- 2-1- Wins over UCF, St. Joe's and a loss to UConn
In or Out right now- Out- Harvard still owns a slim lead for the Ivy league conference title, but their loss Saturday to Penn makes their situation much more tenuous. A win over Penn would have given them a strong two-game lead for the title, but this loss puts them only 1/2 a game ahead of Penn for the title. The reason Harvard is "out" for at-large consideration is this: If they win out, they will most likely win the conference, but if they lose a game and the Ivy league title, they will have posted another bad loss to hurt their resume enough to keep them out. Harvard does have a few quality wins, but a loss to either Columbia or Cornell will damage their resume enough to send them to the NIT.
LB St.- Record- 21-7 (14-0 in Big West)
Games Remaining- vs. UC-Irvine, at CS Fullerton
Ken Pom Rating- 42
Ken Pom SOS- 98
Quality Wins (vs. Ken Pom Top 75)- Xavier
Bad Losses- at Montana
Record vs. Other Bubble Teams- 1-0- Wins over Xav
In or Out right now- In- Long Beach St. makes the field based more on the quality of their losses than the strength of their victories. Their one quality win came against a short-handed Xavier squad (suspensions for Cincy brawl), but they managed to lose tightly contested battles against solid squads in UNC (lost by 6 on the road), Kansas (lost by 8 on the road), Creighton (lost by 2 on the road) and SD St. (lost by 4 on the road). These impressive showings in defeat coupled with their undefeated conference record would give LB St. a bid should they lose their conference tourney.
MTSU- Record- 25-5 (14-2 in Sun Belt)
Games Remaining- None
Ken Pom Rating- 50
Ken Pom SOS- 175
Quality Wins (vs. Ken Pom Top 75)- at UCLA, Belmont,
Bad Losses- at UAB, at WKy
Record vs. Other Bubble Teams- None
In or Out right now- Out- MTSU will most likely need to win their conference tourney to get in the tourney. Although they've had a great season, they simply don't have enough quality wins on the resume. The Sun Belt as a whole is down this year, which further damages their cause. They could potentially earn an at-large bid if they lose in the finals of their conference tourney, but most likely they need to win the Sun Belt tourney.
Iona- Record- 24-6 (15-3 in MAAC)
Games Remaining- None
Ken Pom Rating- 49
Ken Pom SOS- 172
Quality Wins (vs. Ken Pom Top 75)- St. Joe's, at Den,
Bad Losses- at Hofstra, at Siena, at Loy (Md.), Manhatten (Home)
Record vs. Other Bubble Teams- 1-1- Win over St. Joe's and a Loss to Purdue
In or Out right now- Out- The Gaels have too many bad losses throughout their soft schedule to warrant at-large consideration. Although they have several wins against teams just outside the top 100, their quality wins just don't stack up with other bubble teams. They did manage to beat a Denver squad on the road that beat several strong teams in their building this year, but the Gaels will most likely have to win the MAAC tourney to get in the field.
BYU- Record- 24-7 (12-4 in WCC)
Games Remaining- None
Ken Pom Rating- 38
Ken Pom SOS- 162
Quality Wins (vs. Ken Pom Top 75)- Ore, at VaTech, Gonzaga
Bad Losses- at Utah St., LoyMarymount (Home)
Record vs. Other Bubble Teams- 1-2- Win over Ore and two Losses to St. Mary's
In or Out right now- Out- BYU is the most difficult bubble team to call at this moment. The schedule isn't great, but they do have a few decent wins this season. On the other hand, fellow bubble team St. Mary's swept them this year in blowout fashion. They probably need a deep WCC tourney run and potentially an upset over Gonzaga in the semis to get in the field.
VCU- Record- 25-6 (15-3 in Colonial)
Games Remaining- None
Ken Pom Rating- 47
Ken Pom SOS- 168
Quality Wins (vs. Ken Pom Top 75)- South Florida,
Bad Losses- GaTech (neutral)
Record vs. Other Bubble Teams- 1-3- Win over SFla and Losses to Ala, SHall, Drex
In or Out right now- In- Their resume isn't necessarily any better than BYU or Iona, but it will be impossible for the committee to not consider last year's final four run when deciding if VCU should make the field this year. Although they only have one quality win (they do have several other top 100 wins), they avoided bad losses for most of the season. They are also an impressive 22-3 since starting the season 3-3. If they can get to the CAA final, they should be in the dance again this year.
Drexel- Record- 25-5 (16-2 in Colonial)
Games Remaining- None
Ken Pom Rating- 46
Ken Pom SOS- 225
Quality Wins (vs. Ken Pom Top 75)- VCU, at Clev St.
Bad Losses- Norfolk St. (Home), at Delaware
Record vs. Other Bubble Teams-
In or Out right now- In- Drexel gets the nod because they played virtually perfect basketball after their early 2-4 start. They've won 23 of 24 games since December 3rd, including home wins over VCU and GMason, and a road win over ODU to close the regular season. Although the Dragons did benefit from a favorable conference schedule (no road games against VCU, GMason, or Delaware), they do deserve credit for their amazing run and a bid in the tourney should they lose in the CAA tourney.
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