by John Huffstetler
Friday Jan. 6th 8:00 PM- Arkansas (10-2) (-9.5) vs. Kansas St. (10-2) O/U 63.5- Kansas St. played 9 games this year that were decided by 7 points or less and they won 8 of those games. Their one close loss came against an obviously strong Oklahoma St. team. Some of this success in close games can be attributed to their veteran coach, Bill Snyder, and their QB Collin Klein's ability to make plays with his arm and his legs; however, much of this success in close games relates directly to luck. No, not Andrew Luck. Any time a team wins a high number of close games, their winning percentage is skewed higher than their actual ability level. This appears to be the case with Kansas St. Despite having impressive wins over Miami, Baylor, Missouri, Tex A+M, and Texas, the Wildcats rank just 92nd in offensive YPP and 84th in defensive YPP. Arkansas' only two losses this year were to #1 LSU and #2 Alabama, but they had their share of luck as well. A miracle fumble for a TD against Vandy and a dramatic second half comeback against Tex A+M helped the Razorbacks avoid a 3rd loss on the season. Arkansas, however, shows better from a YPP perspective, ranking 12th offensively and 52nd defensively. They also managed an impressive 16 point victory over a prominent (Top 5 in my opinion) South Carolina squad at home.
Prediction- Although Kansas St. has proved to be lucky this year in getting to 10 wins, I believe in their squad. They played an extremely difficult schedule and coach Bill Snyder has championed the underdog role to his team all year. Although Arkansas is the stronger squad, I believe Kansas St. will make a game of it, but big-time offenses have put up some major points against the Wildcats (Baylor 35, Oklahoma 58 and Okla St. 52) and I expect Arkansas to do the same. Arkansas pulls it out in the second half for a tight victory. Score Arkansas 38-32.
Gambling Perspective- Plays- 15-12
Leans 12-7
Slightest of leans to Kansas St., mainly because Bill Snyder is a markedly better coach than Bobby Petrino. He should have a game-plan in place to keep the Wildcats in this game. Play the over at 63.5. Arkansas' offense being stronger than their defense coupled with Kansas St.'s trouble with elite offenses should send this game over the relatively high total.
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Feel free to email me at jhuffmm@yahoo.com
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