Tuesday, December 27, 2011

CFB Little Caesers Bowl Bettors Preview- Western Michigan and Purdue

Plays- 5-1
Leans- 4-1

4:30 EST Tuesday- Purdue (6-6) (-3) vs. Western Michigan (7-5) O/U 60- Tomorrow, Purdue will play their first bowl game since 2007 and also the first of the Danny Hope era. They will be highly motivated for this contest against an offensively strong Bronco squad. This WMich team, who averaged 6.2 YPP (good for 18th in the nation) will return starting QB Alex Carder to the field after he missed the regular season finale against Akron with a shoulder injury. Their offensive efficiency partially masks their defensive failings. As most MAC teams, WMich's defense is sub-par, allowing 6.2 YPP (ranked 101st in the nation). Purdue, meanwhile, struggles to move the ball offensively, gaining just 4.8 YPP. 10 of their 12 games this year finished under the posted total of 60 for this game.

Play- While Purdue will come out highly motivated for this contest, nothing impresses me about their regular season results or stats. Western Mich plays solid defense, but struggles to make key defensive stops or step up in class against major conference foes. No lean on the spread. The over/under will be interesting as Western Michigan is a prototypical "over" team, while Purdue remains an "under" squad. If the score goes either very low or high at half, I will look to make a halftime play. No lean on the O/U either.

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