Thursday, December 29, 2011

College Football Bowl Preview- Alamo Bowl- Baylor vs. Washington

Thursday 9:00 pm EST- Baylor (9-3) (-9.5) vs. Washington (7-5) O/U 78.5- Baylor is the hottest team in country entering this bowl season. They have won 5 straight, including 3 wins against bowl teams, and their offense scored more than 30 points in every game this season. They also enter this game highly motivated, having lost in embarrassing fashion in their home state last year in the Texas Bowl against Illinois. They play this game once again in their home state against a Washington team that failed to step up in class all season. In their 4 toughest games this year (at Nebraska, at Stanford, vs Oregon, and at USC), they went 0-4 losing by an average of 24.3 points. Conversely, Baylor played 8 bowl teams this year going 5-3, including wins over Oklahoma, TCU, Texas and Misszou.

Prediction- Baylor dominates this game using their explosive offense, while getting just enough stops from their defense. Both teams rank in the bottom 25 in the nation in defensive YPP, so this will be a high scoring affair. Baylor will come out with a great performance in their home state this time around. 56-35 Baylor wins.

Gambling Perspective- Plays- 8-3 (1-0 on big plays)
Leans- 6-1

Play Baylor -9.5 and double your standard bet. RG III and the Bears have a virtually unstoppable offense. I expect Baylor to win the turnover battle and make the key plays needed to push this game into double digits. No lean on the total. These two teams could hit 100, but the total is too high to consider.

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