Friday, December 30, 2011

College Football Bowl Preview- Armed Forces Bowl- BYU vs. Tulsa

by John Huffstetler

Friday Dec 31st- 12:00 PM EST- Tulsa (8-4) (-1) vs. BYU (9-3) O/U 56
- On paper, this match-up looks like a pair of "hot" teams entering a bowl game on long winning streaks (BYU 8-1 in last 9, Tulsa 7-1 in last 8), but a look at the level of competition makes these streaks much less impressive. BYU played a laughable schedule in their first season as an independent team, playing only 4 bowl teams. In those games, they lost to Texas and TCU in respectable close games, beat Utah St. at home by only 3, and were blasted by rival Utah by 44. In fairness, BYU did show dramatic improvement during the season, precipitated by the switch at quarterback to the versatile Riley Nelson. Since he became the starter at QB, BYU is 6-2 ATS and have averaged 37.9 ppg, albeit against below average competition. Similarly, Tulsa's streak was based mainly on an ease in level of competition. After playing a murderous September (away games against Okla, Okla St, and Boise St.), the Golden Hurricane settled in to a routine conference schedule and racked up wins in bunches. After September, they played only 3 bowl teams, pummeling Marshall and SMU, and getting embarrassed by a solid Houston squad.

Prediction- Neither team impresses me all that much. This game should remain close throughout. The extra time to prepare for the bowl game should benefit BYU by allowing Riley Nelson more practice time at QB to gel with the offense. I will give a slight nod to BYU because of that factor. 35-33 BYU.

Gambling Perspective- Plays- 9-3 (2-0 on Big Plays)
Leans- 6-1

No lean on the spread. Any bet on who would win this game is purely a guess. There is no angle to play, besides the improvement of BYU's offense under Nelson. Strong Lean over the total of 56. 9 of Tulsa's 12 games have reached this posted total and BYU's offensive improvement should provide enough firepower to push this over 56. I hesitate to make this a play because Tulsa struggled to put together solid offensive performances against Okla, Boise St, and Houston, averaging only 17 points in these match-ups, and BYU does have a solid enough defense to slow them down.

Follow me @Truckstetler on Twitter

Feel Free to email me at

No comments:

Post a Comment